Written by: Collin Fitzgerald
Collin specializes in research capabilities, providing support for the Colliers Columbus Office, Industrial, and Retail groups. He is responsible for executing data reports, maintaining a commercial property database, reporting quarterly trends, performing data analysis, and utilizing statistical information to predict future behavior in the market. Keep reading for his take on market trends in the Dublin submarket.
Absorption & Vacancy
The Dublin market concluded the third quarter with 133,989 square feet of negative absorption across medical, retail, office, and industrial sectors. This drove the overall vacancy rate up to 11.72 percent from the second quarter’s 11.44%, aligning with the slow down of demand and leasing activity observed in Dublin and surrounding submarkets during the third quarter of 2024. The retail sector saw 23,114 square feet of negative absorption in the third quarter while the industrial sector recorded negative absorption of 47,939 square feet, which aligns with the trends of the Columbus market, where we are seeing a slowdown in industrial activity. Additionally, the office sector recorded 56,403 square feet of negative absorption in the third quarter and medical office space had 6,533 square feet of negative absorption this quarter. Dublin continues to be a leader in the Columbus market in leasing activity. One of the trends that supports this is tenant migration. Tracking tenants' movement within the Greater Columbus Region shows Dublin is consistently in the top three submarkets for activity. In the third quarter of 2024, Dublin recorded the most new leases signed and the most renewals and expansions, surpassing neighboring submarkets such as Polaris, Westerville, and Worthington. Dublin, Ohio's commercial real estate market stands out for its strategic location within the thriving Columbus metropolitan area, attracting businesses seeking accessibility and growth opportunities. Its diverse mix of industries, robust economy, and supportive business environment contribute to its sustained success in the commercial real estate sector.
Tenants in the Market
Colliers | Columbus reports that 21 office tenants are exclusively seeking space in Dublin, with 11 of those requiring 5,000 square feet or more. Dublin currently ranks among the top three most desired submarkets for tenants seeking office space. In the industrial sector, 13 tenants are currently looking in the North submarket, which includes Dublin, Westerville, and Worthington, with 11 requiring 10,000 square feet or more. In the retail sector, nine users are exclusively looking in Dublin, while over 100 tenants are considering multiple markets, with Dublin remaining a top location.
Around the Region
As of mid-2024, the office market in Columbus, Ohio, is navigating a complex landscape shaped by high vacancy rates and shifting tenant demands. The Columbus office market experienced negative absorption for the third consecutive quarter, resulting in a 45-basis-point jump in overall vacancy to 19.29%. Suburban submarkets were the primary contributors to the negative absorption, with Dublin accounting for 47,161 square feet of negative absorption, followed by the Westerville submarket with 31,649 square feet. Average asking rates increased $1.86 during the third quarter to $21.87 PSF. We expect rents to rise moderately in the next few quarters, with more speculative office space to be delivered in Columbus by mid-year 2025. Demand for premium, modern office space remains relatively strong, particularly in suburban areas and surrounding neighborhoods like Dublin and Polaris. The Columbus industrial market had positive net absorption again this quarter after recovering from negative net absorption at the start of the year. Although the positive net absorption this quarter reflects a recovery in tenant demand, this year is on track to be the lowest absorption in the past five years. As Columbus continues to be impacted by national socioeconomic uncertainty, leading to the slowing of the industrial boom that prevailed during and just after the pandemic, it is now reverting to vacancy and absorption numbers that more closely align with pre-pandemic trends.
Check out the full Q3 2024 Dublin Trends report here!